The review conference on the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty in New York last year was a reminder that all nuclear weapons states have a legal international duty to disarm. It was a reminder that was not only ignored by the British government - they are actually planning a new generation of nuclear weapons. This poses a massive challenge for all of us in the peace movement. At a time when Britain is involved in a bloody and brutal occupation of Iraq and planning to build new nuclear power stations, we have to galvanise people to resist and protest against another dangerous, irresponsible and illegal policy.
I would like to start by looking at the current situation and government plans for future nuclear weapons.
There are between 24,000 and 33,000 nuclear warheads in the world today – more than 95% in the arsenals of the United States and Russia. The other countries with nuclear weapons are China, France, UK, India, Pakistan and Israel.
Britain has a fleet of four nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines based at the Clyde Naval base in Faslane, Scotland – HMS Vanguard, Victorious, Vigilant and Vengeance. Each submarine carries sixteen Trident II D5 missiles, leased from the USA, and each of these carry three nuclear warheads – 48 per submarine. Each warhead is 8 times more powerful than the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945 killing over 100,000 people. Each of the 4 submarines has the equivalent destructive capability of 384 Hiroshima bombs. One submarine is continuously on submerged patrol, probably in the Atlantic.
The Trident nuclear weapons system replaced a previous submarine-based nuclear weapon system called Polaris, which had four submarines armed with 16 US-built Polaris missiles. When the decision was taken to replace Polaris by Trident in 1980, Parliament wasn’t properly informed of either its existence or its likely costs. The first Trident submarine entered service in 1994. The fourth in 1999. Trident has a planned lifespan of approximately 30 years, and so could remain operational until around 2025.
It took 14 years from the 1980 decision to replace Polaris with Trident until the first Trident submarine entered into service, so any decision on replacing Trident should be due about now.
It has been estimated that a Trident replacement would cost more than £15 billion - the whole annual British defence budget is about £6 billion. This sum does not include the full cost of decommissioning or dealing with nuclear waste and contamination problems for Trident.
The real figures show that we could spend the 25 billion on 120,000 newly qualified nurses every year for the next ten years; on scrapping student top-up fees every year for the next ten years; on 60,000 newly qualified teachers every year for the next twenty years; on 100,000 extra firefighters every year for the next ten years; on protecting 900 million acres of rainforest; and on meeting UN Millennium Goals aid target of 0.7% GNP every year for the next six years.
The government actually has three options. It could extend the ‘life ‘of the existing Trident submarines, as the US has done (until 2029). It could replace the Trident with another system. Or it could decide not to replace Trident and carry out its 35-year old obligation to nuclear disarmament under Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It could be replaced by tactical nuclear weapons to be used for regime change or trying to control resources -
The government refuses to publish any ofits studies and the MOD refused to participate in the commons select committee on defence enquiry in March this year which was intended to "inform the public debate" on the future of Britains' nuclear weapons.
What are the chances for each of those options? Well, look at the evidence we have so far.
On the 4th July 2005, the Secretary of State for Defence, John Reid, said “Decisions on any replacement of the United Kingdom’s nuclear deterrent are likely to be necessary in the lifetime of the current parliament.”
And in January planning permission was given for a new super laser facility at the Atomic Weapons Establishment in Aldermaston. ORION, as it’s called, will enable new nuclear weapons to be developed and tested without the need for full scale underground bomb tests because it can simulate the effects of a thermo nuclear explosion. This laser alone undermines the aims of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. They have recruited 1000 specialist scientists and invested in new laboratories and equipment.
What is the purpose of this if not to develop and test new weapons? So the signs are that once again a decision has already been made in secret while the pretence of considering the options continues.
The Labour Government dropped its ‘No First Use’ (of nuclear weapons) policy after being elected in 1997. In 2002, Geoff Hoon, then Secretary of State for Defence, said that nuclear weapons might be used not only in response to nuclear attacks, but also in response to chemical and biological weapon attacks. He also announced that a pre-emptive strike might be used against a country considered by the Government to be a sufficient threat, whether or not that country even owns nuclear weapons. This goes against previous British commitments never to use nuclear weapons first, and declarations that Trident is only a ‘minimum nuclear deterrent’.
The Labour Party Manifesto in 2005 stated, “We are also committed to retaining the independent nuclear deterrent.”
And despite the fact that there has been no debate in the House of Commons on this issue, huge sums of public money have already been spent on the developments at Aldermaston.
So what can we do?
Firstly, give people this information. Tell people the real cost. Remind people whar Tony Blair thinks about weapons of mass destruction. Keep telling people how many died in Hiroshima and Nagaski and Chernobyl - nuclear wasteland.
People are on our side - recent MORI poll showed that 54% of people in britain oppose an expensive replacement of Trident.
We must mobilise that opposition - petition, letters to MP's and to Government, statement by Assembley, EDM - Heddwch and direct action.
On 1st October this year a massive campaign of civil resistance will begin. There have been many blockades of the Trident base in Faslane and many people from Wales have taken part. This time a year long peaceful blockade is planned called Faslane 365.All kinds of organizations are being asked to bring 100 people to Faslane to stay for 48 hours. The blockade will disrupt the workings of the nuclear base. The demand is “Trident must be taken out of deployment and the government should make a timetable for dismantling the weapons, together with a commitment not to develop any new nuclear weapons”.
This is a very ambitious aim and will mean mobilizing people like never before as well as raising awareness of the threat of nuclear weapons. The final go-ahead will be given for the action when 100 groups are signed up for the first 100 days – so we have to really work on this now.
On 13/14 November, it will be Red Dragon Days when we will appeal to different groupes, such as teachers, nurses, local authority workers. We have to build on the strong networks created by the Social Forum and the anti poverty and anti war movements. We have to make the connections between the issues of disarmament, peace and justice which are coming together like never beforeWe must make it an inspirational symbol like greenham.
I was at the Make Poverty History demonstration in Edinburgh in July where there were a whole range of new groups taking action – and a new generation of people who weren’t old enough to be active in the 70s and 80s who aren’t aware of the nuclear issues. We can relate the campaign too to the anti nuclear power movement which is growing in Wales.
CND Cymru believes that complete nuclear disarmament is the only lawful and moral option for Britain; therefore the Trident nuclear weapons system should not be extended or replaced.
In 1996, the International Court of Justice ruled that: “the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be generally contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, and in particular the principles and rules of humanitarian law”.
In other words any nuclear attack would be illegal, unless it could be carried out within the confines of humanitarian law, a situation which most people find impossible to envisage.
The strength of CND Cymru is that it is a community based movement - people campaigning in their villages and towns , with them friends and neighbours and colleagues at work. we need to get all these people who want to make poverty history to make trident history too. There are new campaigning methods - texting, websites, etc. but nothing can reploace talking to people face to face. That's why we need more public meetings, more leaflets to be everywhere where the message can be heard - council pickets, school closures, hospital campaigns.
The last trident campaign seems a long time ago but we are here and ready to campaign again because CND Cymru has kept you in touch. We are asking everywhere not to go a step further and get involved. Becasue trident is expensive, militarily useless and against international law. Our security can only be ensured through nuclear disarmament.
Jill Evans ASE/MEP
